Digital commons promise new opportunities to shape the digital space in an open and socially responsible way, as well as to strengthen digital sovereignty. But what might the future look like with them? In the Digital Commons 2040 foresight process, we venture a look ahead.

As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.”
― Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

To conceive of the future as something we actively shape, rather than something that simply happens to us, we need imagination and the courage to develop exploratory ideas that can reveal different courses of action and expand our scope for action. Particularly in the context of digitalization, the impression quickly arises that the future is being forged in Silicon Valley and is galloping away from us with ever-new technological developments. The rise of generative AI, the market power of large platforms, and our dependence on a few cloud providers raise the question: How much digital self-determination do we still have as nations, as a society, and as individuals? And: What kind of digital world do we want to live in? What can we do to shape this world? Anyone who takes these questions seriously cannot avoid looking ahead, rather than merely reacting to what is happening right now. That is exactly what we aim to do with the Digital Commons 2040 foresight process together with experts from academia, civil society, politics, and technology.

What Are Digital Commons?

Digital commons have been widely discussed as a way to achieve greater democratic participation and sovereignty in the digital sphere. They are digital resources that are developed collectively, are openly accessible, and are intended to serve the common good. They are a subset of the commons, consisting of data, information, culture, and knowledge that are created and/or maintained online. They are shared in a way that prevents them from being enclosed and enables everyone to access and build upon them. Unlike traditional material goods, digital resources do not depreciate with use: the more people use them, the more valuable they often become. It is precisely this characteristic that makes them a promising building block for greater democratic participation and sovereignty in the digital sphere. Well-known examples include open-source software, Wikipedia, the decentralized social network Mastodon, and collectively managed data and AI infrastructures.

It is important to note that openness alone is not enough. For open technology to truly become a common good, it requires — as Commons researcher Elinor Ostrom has shown for traditional commons — clear rules, reliable institutions, and a willingness to share responsibility. Ostrom received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2009 for demonstrating that common-pool resources are not inevitably overexploited but can be sustainably preserved through effective governance structures. This is precisely the focus of the Global Digital Compact, which the United Nations adopted in September 2024 at the Summit of the Future: Under the heading “Digital Public Goods,” it calls for an internationally coordinated governance architecture for digital commons.

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Using foresight to open a space for thinking about digital futures

It is not yet set which role Digital Commons will actually play in the future. While open models are growing in some areas, market power and dependence on a few providers are increasing elsewhere. So far, there are few spaces where binding negotiations about the rules governing the future use of digital technologies, data, and infrastructure can take place. What’s at issue here isn’t just economic questions or access to digital resources, but also how digital infrastructures can be designed to serve the common good, be democratically legitimized, and be managed responsibly.

One approach to exploring future scenarios is foresight, a structured, expert-led method. It involves an interdisciplinary group engaging in a guided (group) process designed to break free from entrenched patterns of thought. This makes it possible to bring developments that are hard to imagine in everyday life into sharper focus and to explore alternative paths to the future. We aim to think through possible futures for digital commons and a digitalization focused on the common good, so that we can then determine what this means today for strategic positioning and policy decisions. Especially in light of lock-in effects and geopolitical tensions, it is helpful to identify potential dependencies and lines of conflict and to work out alternative courses of action. In doing so, we must always keep in mind that the future is still open: there are an infinite number of future scenarios. This process is not about predicting the future that will actually come to pass, but rather about learning to better cope with uncertainty. The goal is to bring various possible futures into focus and to develop a shared understanding of where digital commons might be headed.

We will focus on the following questions: What role can digital commons play in the future for digital sovereignty, innovation, and the shaping of the digital space? What alternative paths of development are conceivable? And what decisions must be made today to strengthen digital infrastructures oriented towards the common good? We will discuss and explore these and further questions, guided by Dr. Johannes Gabriel und Theresa Schültken of Foresight Intelligence.

What’s next?

Starting now, we’ll be posting regular updates here on the foresight process, future scenarios, and food for thought regarding Digital Commons — be sure to check back!

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